TEHRAN – An associate research fellow at Institute for Security and Development Policy says that China’s growing influence in the Indian Ocean and its alliance with Pakistan and Afghanistan under Taliban rule would change the geopolitical landscape.

“China’s growing presence in the Indian Ocean and increasing synergy with Pakistan and a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan has entirely changed the geopolitical landscape,” Mahima Duggal tells the Tehran Times.

“At present, India’s foremost challenge in the international sphere is to adapt to a rapidly changing regional and global order while managing its relations with an adverse and formidable power of China,” she adds.

While India is a member of the Shanghai Cooperation, its disputes with China have crippled efforts for a close collaboration between two countries.

Some critics say India is turning towards the Western-led coalition instead of consolidating its ties with regional powers like China. 

“India’s foreign policy has long promoted two core (but interrelated) values of multi-alignment and strategic autonomy, through which New Delhi has sought to hedge between China and the United States. However, this has proved increasingly difficult amid India’s deteriorating ties with China in recent years,” Duggal notes.

Following is the text of the interview:

Q: How is India tracing Afghanistan’s development? What is the importance of Afghanistan for India?

A: The U.S.’ abrupt withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul have presented a major challenge to India’s multi-dimensional stakes in the country. Regarded as a ‘gateway’ to Central Asia, Afghanistan has long held key importance for India’s security interest vis-a-vis Pakistan and the South Asian region at large. Under India’s foreign policy focus on greater continental connectivity and maritime security in the Indian Ocean, New Delhi has invested heavily in Afghanistan over the past two decades. This includes developmental assistance - such as contributing to building of physical connectivity, healthcare, educational, digital and energy infrastructure - as well as supporting the community building and peace process in the country.

 Not only does stability in Afghanistan directly affect Islamic militant activity in India’s Kashmir, but it is also strategically important as a balance against Pakistan and China’s regional influence. For instance, Afghanistan is a crucial component in India’s plans to develop the Chabahar port with Iran - an effort to bolster India’s maritime activity and maintain a strategic foothold in the region amidst China’s growing sway with ventures like the Gwadar port in Balochistan and now the potential extension of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor into Afghanistan. The Taliban 2.0’s arrival, however, has left India with few options in the region while placing Pakistan and China as drivers in Kabul. New Delhi is therefore carefully following the development and looking to closely cooperate with its partners in the region and beyond to ensure peace and stability and balancing China’s clout in the region.

Q: What are the main priorities and challenges of India in terms of foreign policy?
A: At present, India’s foremost challenge in the international sphere is to adapt to a rapidly changing regional and global order while managing its relations with an adverse and formidable power of China right in its backyard. China’s belligerence at the LAC has resulted in a breakdown of their three decades of diplomatic ties while all but entirely eroding trust between the two countries. At the same time, China’s growing presence in the Indian Ocean and increasing synergy with Pakistan and a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan have entirely changed the geopolitical landscape, presenting new and unparalleled challenges. 

Currently, post the 13th round of India-China Corps Commander talks, while there has been some thawing along with the tensed border areas, both states remain deadlocked at a key strategic Himalayan Pass in the Depsang Plains, as the troops of both states prepare to stay put for another long winter. 

Moreover, there have also been reports of fresh transgressions/incursions (like in the Barahoti Plains and Tawang Tracts) that were intercepted, even as the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) infrastructure build-up at the LAC continues. India recognizes the fact that Chinese aggression at the border is not driven only by a desire for territorial gain but a show of power and dominance in the region. Despite India’s considerable military and economic prowess, China boasts of a GDP almost five times that of India and a defense budget almost three times greater. This asymmetry is quickly expanding as Beijing quickly augments its military and technological capabilities under its modernization goals, and ambition for parity with the U.S. Beijing views India as a subordinate power in a hierarchical international system where China leads the pecking order. China’s belligerence vis-a-vis India is meant to assert such a status and demonstrate its capabilities. Accordingly, New Delhi has been forced to rethink and reimagine its foreign policy tenets and set new priorities. Focus on the Indo-Pacific region and maritime security is drawn under such a reinvigorated strategy.

Q: Do you think India is ready to involve itself in regional corporations to considerate its ties with regional powers?
A: Under India’s Indo-Pacific strategy, increasing involvement in partnerships and international cooperation to promote a free, open, inclusive, rules-based, peaceful and prosperous region is a key priority. In this context, New Delhi is increasingly looking for greater engagement via regional forums - both multilateral (but especially) mini-lateral ones. As its dynamics with China change further, India will look to further deepen its ties with its Quad partners and enter into new arrangements (like the India-Japan-France trilateral currently under works). Building stronger partnerships has become a key part of India’s response to Chinese pressure as a way to show that it is unwilling to mute its voice on the international stage or compromise its core values, sovereignty and territorial integrity. Nevertheless, even as it searches for deeper security and economic ties and increased cooperation in international forums (like the UN Security Council), New Delhi is not currently willing to enter any formal treaty alliances or join U.S.-led NATO-like security architecture in the Indo-Pacific, which it believes could be detrimental to its strategic autonomy. Whether this policy will change and New Delhi will become more open to a security alliance (perhaps along the lines of AUKUS) as the China threat intensifies remains to be seen. For now, however, India’s aim remains to work in plurilateral settings with like-minded power to foster an inclusive order rather than a binary or hegemonic one.

Q: How do you see the importance of Shanghai cooperation to India and the region?
A: In its vision for an inclusive, peaceful and stable order, India has continued its engagement with China on regional and international platforms, and the SCO is a unique and important forum in this regard. Regardless of tensions with Beijing, the SCO, with its comprehensive focus on security, economic, cultural, and humanitarian cooperation, will continue to be an integral part of India’s institutional engagement in the region, as a point of access to Eurasia and Central Asia. It fills a crucial gap in India’s limited connectivity with this region, making these countries a primary focus in Indian diplomacy via the SCO. In fact, after joining the group in 2017, India hosted the SCO’s Heads of Government summit (conducted virtually) for the first time in November 2020. Apart from being a key initiative for interactions with the Central Asian region, the SCO is also crucial for New Delhi to enhance its partnership with Russia and a way to expand its footprint so as to balance against Chinese influence in the region. In this context, we could in fact see a greater focus on the SCO as India attempts to cement its outreach to Central Asia and further manage China’s growing clout.